Euro Crisis

I'm thinking the Euro will trail lower just as the current BlackRock Founder discusses in this video:
http://video.ft.com/v/685838134001/Blackrock-boss-Larry-Fink-defends-QE-

I'm still bullish on Gold, Silver, and Stocks, but I just need to see how all this Korea non-sense plays out and if this euro crisis is WORSE than it seems, or if it can be sugar-coated over.
With the VIX trailing up, I'm buying some Puts on the SPY for downside protection hedging, and also buying longterm Call LEAPS and selling some shorter dated calls against them.

Which Way This Week? Sell it, or Off to the Races!

Seems as though we have significant resistance at the $950 Level on the S&P 500, this last week we've gone well up over 7% and there could very well be the possibility that the market was bought up to sell all of the Earnings News coming this week.

From my speculation, if we get some good earnings reports from a lot of major S&P 500 companies, then all the buying that was done in the previous week will not have been in vain and we could push through the $950 level! It seems as though this recession was priced in by knocking down great companies stock prices, and noone wanted to miss the bull run so a lot of institutional money came into the market never to look back at the $700 level on the S&P's. This week has already been positive with the Dow Jones currently up +100 points. You have to ask yourself one question, why would all of these companies have been bought up with rigorous buying if there was no catalyst to spark all of the buying. Was it the supposible, "Fakeout to Sell the News" or was it legitimate buying interest buy Institutions that are placing their money into companies that they believe to have better than expected prospects to beat the street earnings and get this market into gear, because there may be signs that the Economy is ticking up in sales across a vast array of different companies?

I'm very weary of Apple (AAPL) into earnings. The stock has gone from $135 to $155 per share in a matter of 1 month! Resistance lies at the $155 level and I'm almost thinking that there may be a large amount of selling after the news to take some of the well Earned Profits that have come from buying into the stock since mid-June. The largest Open Interest for Apple is in the August contract in the $130 Put options and then the $150 Call options, 19,000 & 23,300 contracts respectively. This may be indicative that people are buying protection for their stock in the form of Put Options in case we do get a sell off in the stock after earnings are released and the numbers don't blow out the estimate Wall Street has bestowed upon them, somewhere in the ballpark of 5 million iphones are expected to have been sold, and I have heard from various news sources rumors that Apple will blowout the Mac sales forecasts, so we will see.

How to Get the Most Out of Pumping Gas!

This is short little article on how to save a few cents at the gas pump. The most important part of the article is near the end, where it talks about buyin gas from certain stations that dont import thier oil from middle eastern countries. Enjoy.

I don't know what you guys are paying for gasoline.... but in California we are also paying higher, up to $3.50 per gallon. But my line of work is in petroleum for about 31 years now, so here are some tricks to get more of your money's worth for every gallon..

Here at the Kinder Morgan Pipeline where I work in San Jose, CA we deliver about 4 million gallons in a 24-hour period through the pipeline. One day is diesel the next day is jet fuel, and gasoline, regular and premium grades. We have 34-storage tanks here with a total capacity of 16,800,000 gallons.

Only buy or fill up your car or truck in the early morning when the ground temperature is still cold. Remember that all service stations have their storage tanks buried below ground. The colder the ground the more dense the gasoline, when it gets warmer gasoline expands, so buying in the afternoon or in the evening....your gallon is not exactly a gallon. In the petroleum business, the specific gravity and the temperature of the gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, ethanol and other petroleum products plays an important role.

A 1-degree rise in temperature is a big deal for this business. But the service stations do not have temperature controls.
Compensation at the pumps.

When you're filling up do not squeeze the trigger of the nozzle to a fast mode. If you look you will see that the trigger has three (3)stages: low, middle, and high. In slow mode you should be pumping on low speed, thereby minimizing the vapors that are created while you are pumping. All hoses at the pump have a vapor return. If you are pumping on the fast rate, some other liquid that goes to your tank becomes vapor. Those vapors are being sucked up and back into the underground storage tank so you're getting less worth for your money.

One of the most important tips is to fill up when your gas tank is HALF FULL or HALF EMPTY. The reason for this is, the more gas you have in your tank the less air occupying its empty space. Gasoline evaporates faster than you can imagine. Gasoline storage tanks have an internal floating roof. This roof serves as zero clearance between the gas and the atmosphere, so it minimizes the evaporation. Unlike service stations, here where I work, every truck that we load is temperature compensated so that every gallon is actually the exact amount.

Another reminder, if there is a gasoline truck pumping into the storage tanks when you stop to buy gas, DO NOT fill up--most likely the gasoline is being stirred up as the gas is being delivered, and you might pick up some of the dirt that normally settles on the bottom. Hope this will help you get the most value for your money.

DO SHARE THESE TIPS WITH OTHERS!

WHERE TO BUY USA GAS, THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT TO KNOW. READ ON

Gas rationing in the 80's worked even though we grumbled about it. It might even be good for us! The Saudis are boycotting American goods. We should return the favor.

An interesting thought is to boycott their GAS.

Every time you fill up the car, you can avoid putting more money into the coffers of Saudi Arabia. Just buy from gas companies that don't import their oil from the Saudis.

Nothing is more frustrating than the feeling that every time I fill-up the tank, I am sending my money to people who are trying to kill me, my family, and my friends.

I thought it might be interesting for you to know which oil companies are the best to buy gas from and which major companies import Middle Eastern oil.

These companies import Middle Eastern oil:

Shell........................... 205,742,000 barrels
Chevron/Texaco......... 144,332,000 barrels
Exxon /Mobil............... 130,082,000 barrels
Marathon/Speedway... 117,740,000 barrels
Amoco............................62,231,000 barrels

Citgo gas is from South America, from a Dictator who hates Americans. If you do the math at $30/barrel, these imports amount to over $18 BILLION! (oil is now $90 - $100 a barrel)

Here are some large companies that do not import Middle Eastern oil:

Sunoco...................0 barrels
Conoco...................0 barrels
Sinclair....................0 barrels
BP/Phillips..............0 barrels
Hess.......................0 barrels
ARC0......................0 barrels

If you go to Sunoco.com, you will get a list of the station locations near you.

All of this information is available from the Department of Energy and each is required to state where they get their oil and how much they are importing.

But to have an impact, we need to reach literally millions of gas
buyers. It's really simple to do.

Chart Time!

NTRI, Nutri-Systems took yet another tumble after the bell and already 50% of the 32 odd million shares outstanding are sold SHORT. Someone is making some bucks $$!

Look out for BIDU Earnings after the bell on the close of Thursday October, 25, 2007.

The financials have taken a serious beating, I mean you could have shorted any one of the brokerage houses and made a nice profit, Bear Stearns seems to be holding well down near the $109 level where all the big Billionaires are buying shares as a Value play. BSC, spiked up to the $130's on the rumor that Buffet was looking to invest and yet tumbled right back into a range bound trading area.

Here are some interesting charts I was reviewing:







Thanks,
More To Come,
Cal

Nice Plays and New Ideas!

From my last post I shorted TIE & OGE at their 50SMA's. I covered for a couple hundred dollar profits on both stocks, no substantial movements downward, but a pullback nonetheless.

Since, BIDU has broken out on strong volume and taken off for the skies! As of right now the stock is looking ripe for a pullback, and that's exactly where I'll be buying Call Options when this occurs. The previous resistance of $220 will certainly hold as support if the stock will even dare trade that low. Here is the chart I last posted, compared to where it is now, and my recommendation was to watch for a high volume breakout or a bounce against resistance downward, although the former was achieved.




Also my favorite pick that I've been stalking for a SHORT is NutriSystems (NTRI). The stock just couldn't muster up enough buying power to push past it's 50SMA and try to fill an earnings GAP Down from a few months before, perfect to short with relatively low risk, with a great reward profile. Take a Look!


I was a buyer of the OCT $55 Put Options as well as the $45 strike for a more aggressive play. Today the stock was down huge, to the tune of 12%, with the options spiking up 150% and 95% respectively. My Virtual Trade transactions consisted of:

September 13, 2007:
Buy 50 NTRI OCTOBER $55 Puts for $2.65 per contract (.NSIVK)
Buy 50 NTRI OCTOBER $45 Puts for $0.85 per contract (.NSIVI)

Sell 25 NTRI OCT $55 Puts for $4.70 - Profit $5,125
Sell 10 NTRI OCT $55 Puts for $5.80 - Profit $3,150
Total Realized Profit: $8,275.00
P.S. Holding remainder 15 contracts currently priced at $6.15 (unrealized - $5,175.00)

Sell 25 NTRI OCT $45 Puts for $1.50 - Profit $1,625
Sell 10 NTRI OCT $45 Puts for $1.70 - Profit $850
Sell 10 NTRI OCT $45 Puts for $1.50 - Profit $650
Total Realized Profit: $3,125.00
P.S. Holding remainder 5 contracts currently priced at $1.55 (unrealized - $350.00)



I've been trading virtually a lot lately to test strategies and gain confidence in the ideas that I'm solidifying with my research. I use Virtual Stock Exchange, Virtual Stock Exchange to buy and short stocks in individual portfolios and also CBOE Virtual Trading Tool.The CBOE has a brand new trading tool which is ABSOLUTELY AMAZING! It's powered by ThinkorSwim and also Prophet.net, Tim Knight's former website in which he developed and then sold.

Shorts, and Possible Breakouts

I'm shorting Titanium Metals (TIE) on the basis of it tagging it's 50SMA (simple moving average). The stock itself has been weak, relatively dampened volume, and it crept up right to it's 50SMA to the penny. My observations are that it will decline from here on weakness. I'm buying the September $30 Put Options for $0.35 cents per contract.


Baidu.com (BIDU), one of the tech power-house stocks that is up there with Google, Apple, and Research in Motion (RIMM). This stock has been on a roll lately ramping up nice percentage gains and today it popped right up and tested it's resistance level of $219.25. It briefly touched $219.90 before coming back down to earth, but the volume was above normal which is a good sign of buyers in the market and it could quite possibly break-out to new levels. This is one I would definitely be watching for a false breakout, and/or test of resistance, or a full fledged breakout to new highs since the tech sector has been on fire.



I'm also shorting OGE Energy Corp.(OGE) as it tagged it's 50SMA and has been very weak as of late. The volume was sub-par which tells me this run won't last, the buyers aren't there, and it's going to fall, TIMBER!! I'm shorting the stock outright vs. buying PUT Options. The Open Interest for the September $30 Put Option is "11 contracts", wow talk about lack of liquidity.

New Post of Charts

The 190 Level is holding as support for Goldman Sachs. Anything under $200 for this company is a great buy, so why not buy $3 up off major support as a long term play? If I were going to buy, I would stalk the OCT '07 $210 Call Options (.GPYJB) currently selling for $8.20 a contract ($820)and try to get them for even cheaper, if the bounce ensues
.

Get out of the energy sector! These stocks are still in sell off mode from their highs. I mean one day they're hitting year highs and a couple days later names like VLO, CHK, BTU, and XOM are being sold off.



A nice short canidate for a GAP Fill Play would be Citrix Systems (CTXS). In a weak market you can trade either of these 2 ways. Find the weakest stocks blowing past support and short them, or find the high fliers that have Gapped up on possible earnings news, and are trading right above the GAP, once it's broken there is almost a certainty it will be filled.



FoxHollow Technologies (FOXH)

Late Day APPLE Breakout..

I've been finding out that when I do my daily activities and come home around 2:00 during the afternoon, I haven't been glued to my screen all day searching for trading opportunities and I don't really have a bias to to whether the market is going up or down. This past week I've made some very profitable trades coming in late and reading my charts and volume trends. I always notice there is a sell off before lunch usually because traders don't want open positions while they are stuffing their face with caviar and champagne. After the noon swoon, as Dr. J, from OptionMonster.com calls it buyers usually kick in and buy into the mid or late day session (usually, not counting every day).

There are great trading opportunities when you see a stock testing it's day high on good volume, and keeping up near the top. All you have to do is watch the major indexes and if they follow suit and break higher then your stock should immediately take off, no hesitations, because that means buyers aren't prevalent and sellers could take over considering it's at the day high, and all your longs are now green.

Todays trade:


I grossed $363 on the trade scaling in on 800 shares and scaling out for a quick trade. Remember watch that volume, it is key!!!